Some Impacts of Top-Two Primary on 2022 Midterm Election

by Jon Phillips

I guess that unlike Dan Newhouse, Jaime Herrera Beutler's constituency had moved sufficiently to, or past, the center such that a Democrat could win under our Top-Two System. It’s a system that statistically favors stability in the center (as a game theory problem) of any particular District or the State as a whole since the two main Parties cannot effectively control access to the ballot box in the primary. Statistically, Top Two should put the outcome of the general election closer to the average of the “public mind” over a series of election seasons.

 

Our 4th District’s constituency hasn’t drifted far enough left to replace Dan, but it is not far enough to the right for a Trumpian election denier to win either. Dan took advantage of that fact. If we still had a partisan primary system, the Trumper might have won and Dan (who also voted to remove Trump) would likely have been sent home

 

Although Doug White made it into the general election, having the 2nd largest tally in the primary, Dan bested him by a landslide margin in the general. That was an expected outcome.

 

I wish more States would go to Top Two or Ranked Choice (Alaska has demonstrated that the right wing may not be able to win there for federal positions, and neither can the left wing). Since AK has only one Congressional District (it’s a tiny population), gerrymandering is impossible, and also greatly simplifies the process under Ranked Choice.

 

I have my doubts about Ranked choice, except possibly for small population States (e.g., the 5 single District States). I think it’s too easy to attack with disinformation since there’s a culture in the US that expects rapid simple answers on election outcomes and people confuse the need for additional time or complexity with potential for fraud. Ranked Choice, is a multi-step counting algorithm to come to a conclusion.

 

Getting people to accept a single step counting process is difficult enough. At least that’s my opinion. Since I can understand how Ranked Choice works, in principle, it has some advantages over Top Two in terms of favoring the statistical center (it probably reduces variance over Top Two from election to election in a sequence).

 

But I think the extra time and complexity gives too much room to the election denier mob to whip up trouble — especially in larger more complex States. We’ll see whether it lasts in Alaska, etc. It’s already under attack. If not, I hope they don’t back up all the way to a partisan primary system like they had before their 2020 Initiative cycle. Palin might come back in that case and that could move State’s politics noticeably rightward. AK has a serious independent and libertarian streak. That can be used to counter that a partisan primary limits individual’s freedom to choose.

 

It was delicious to watch Palin lose and the moderates sweep AK in 2022. That election was the first Ranked Choice implementation year and probably the only thing that saved the center right Murkowski (though she would likely win Top Two as well — she won on a write-in previous to this election cycle, that’s the definition of small d “democratic popularity”). Also the Democrats got the single House seat. It will also be interesting to see if the recent shift to Ranked Choice moves Sullivan’s (Sen. R -AK) rhetoric more toward the center before his term ends in 2026. I wonder what he might say in 2024 as early positioning.

 

In 2016, Sullivan took a clear position against Trump, but dropped it in 2020 when he had to run under a partisan primary system and Trump’s nutty cult following was maximal. Sullivan’s resume is fairly impressive. Based on his education and experience, I would expect him to be a center right pragmatist, not a Trumper. Former A/S of State in DOS, worked for the Bush WH, full Col (reserves) Marine Corps, former AG of AK, DJ from Harvard Law. Definitely well to the right of me, but doesn’t smell like some flaky Freedom Caucus Trump lover.

 

People should think harder about the value of election reforms that could tremendously help on federal office at the State level. I think that US public opinion writ large is to the left of the US House. Gerrymandering is a significant part of that. But partisan primary systems also play a role. To fix either of those is tough since both Parties engage in those abusive behaviors. They also limit small d “democracy” too much in my opinion

 

I also think that if we had more ideological stability in election outcomes every two years at State and National level, it could help calm populism and work in the interest of more reforms. Perhaps broader interest in reforms blunting gerrymandering and campaign finance might occur in a more pragmatic environment? We really need to dial down the Nation’s political temperature. It’s dangerously high.

 

It would be nice to be able to put an election bumper sticker on my car without worrying about vandalism. I always had one until the last 2 elections. I had an Obama sign in my yard and no one bothered it and I didn’t give a thought to the prospect that someone might — even though I lived in a GOP majority neighborhood. We should try to dial back to that level of comity in political discourse.

 

No Time Like the Present

The primary election is in 3 days, 7 hours, and 52 minutes. Oops! I mean 51, 50, 49... you get the drift. Time is running out to get those primary ballots in the mail, or to the drop box.

According to the Washington Secretary of State website, only 14.8% of ballots in Benton County had been returned as of 8 am this morning. What the hell, folks! These local elections are important; city council, school board, sheriff... The people in these positions directly impact our communities.

Indivisible WA4 created a voters' pamphlet and has been delivering it to businesses around the Tri-Cities. You can help GOTV by emailing the link to on-line version, or calling Jenna Bilbrey Pope, 850-712-9091, who may still have some hard copy guides you can hand to friends and neighbors.

Please forward this blog post and urge people to vote.

Washington State Government Shutdown Looming

With Republicans continuing to block passage of a state budget that fully funds education and essential state services, state government is heading towards the brink of a government shutdown.

The legislature needs to pass a budget by July 1^st or the government will halt nearly all of its services. We need to force Republicans to come to the bargaining table so the legislature can come to an agreement on a budget and we can all avoid an unnecessary, costly, and potentially dangerous government shutdown.

More than half of the state's 50,000 employees will be on indefinite stay-home status.

There will be skeleton crews in Public Health Labs to conduct newborn screenings and assess potentially fatal biological threats and chemical exposures.

HIV client services will be suspended.

Sex offenders who are currently on round-the-clock GPS monitoring will cease to be monitored.

Fish hatcheries — home to millions of salmon, trout and steelhead who rely on the Department of Fish and Wildlife to feed them — are slated to close.

Washington State Parks sent notices of possible cancelation to some 10,112 people who have reserved space to recreate in the parks during the first week of July.

State Opportunity Grants for fall quarter will cease to be available to students at universities and community colleges.

And if you're mad enough to shoot someone about this, forget it; No new gun licenses will be issued.

Call your legislators at the legislative hotline – 1-800-562-6000 – and tell them Republicans need to come to the table so we can fund schools and avoid a shutdown.

Washington State Budget

Washington lawmakers go into second special session on the state budget. Inslee takes capital gains tax off the table.

Washington State Lawmakers Hard at Work on the Budget?

The Republican-led Washington Senate and Democratically-controlled state House can't agree on how to raise the money needed to meet a state Supreme Court mandate to adequately fund public schools. Republicans proposed an increase in property taxes, and an elimination of local school levies. Inslee and Democrats proposed a capital gains tax, and a carbon tax. No one has proposed a state income tax. Odd.

Washington is one of just four states that doesn’t tax any individual or corporate income. We get most of our revenues from sales taxes -- 78%. Our combined state and average local sales-tax rate is 8.9 percent, the nation’s fifth-highest. Washington is No. 1 for liquor sales tax, and we’re in the top 10 for taxes on gasoline and cigarettes. And now Washington expects to make about $730 million from sales of legalized marijuana over the next two years. Sounds like a lot, but it's a pittance relative to our $41.3 billion total revenues that bankroll the state.

Let's either find something else to tax, say vitamin water (we already taxed physical fitness services) or institute an income tax. That way we won't be known for socking it to the poor to pay for operating the state.

Is Democracy Strong in Washington State? Not So Much

Every member of Congress from Washington State who ran for reelection in 2016 raised at least eight times more campaign cash than their nearest challenger, writes John Ryan (no relation to the Jack Clancy character you know from the movies) in Seattle's KUOW.org (94.9 FM).

Patty Murray raised $8 million, or 33 times more than her Republican challenger, Chris Vance. Suzan DelBene reeled in 10 times more money than her Republican challenger, Elizabeth Scott. Republican Congressman Dave Reichert raised 23 times more cash than Democrat Jason Ritchie (who dropped out to run for the state Legislature) and 46 times more than challengers, Democrats Santiago Ramos and Alida Skold.

Ryan writes that, "Once in a blue moon, a candidate will win even though they were outspent. But in the past decade... nobody has made it into Congress from Washington state without raking in at least 65% as much cash as their main opponent. So far this year, no challengers are even close."

Washington State isn't unusual in this, unfortunately. According to Ryan, "Nationwide, incumbent candidates for the House of Representatives raised nearly 5 times more money than their challengers between 1998 and 2014, according to the California nonprofit MapLight. The incumbents won re-election 94 percent of the time."

According to the organization, Public Interest Research Groups -- PRIG, 77% of disclosed contributions in 2016's 34 senate races came from donors who lived outside the state they targeted. In the case of swing state races and in the case of spending by external groups in particular, out-of-state money made up a larger share of campaign spending. This applies to both democratic and republican races.

But it's difficult to know just how much outside organizations are spending to influence elections. Political Action Committees -- principally 501(c)(4)s and 501(c)(6)s, -- known euphemistically as "social welfare" organizations, don't have to disclose their donors, thus the term "dark money." Who's buying our elections? Who the hell knows?!

It was widely predicted that SCOTUS decisions on campaign financing, e.g., Citizens United, would result in a wild west of money being thrown at various races throughout the Nation. Unsurprisingly, the 2016 Election was the most expensive ever at $6,917,636,161; well over double what was spent in 2000.

Washington State passed Initiative 735 with 65% of the vote to become the 17th state to urge Congress to amend the US Constitution to overturn the corporate Citizens United and other decisions that opened the anonymous floodgate of corporate and other dark money in elections.

I-735's objective is to get Washington State's congressional delegation to go on record supporting a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United. Passing it is only the first, "small step for mankind." Holding our legislators' feet to the fire will be harder.