What I missed in assessing the Republican Strategy for Winning in 2016

In a piece I wrote in June 2016 titled, The GOP's Strategy for Winning Hearts and Minds, and the 2016 Election, I wrote that Republicans worked at winning the 2016 Presidential Election from the day Barack Obama won the 2008 election. That was accurate. Republicans turned 'loyal opposition' into outright obstructionism. Their thinking was that if nothing worked, if policies weren't promulgated, if laws weren't passed, if vacancies weren't filled, it would thwart Obama's "liberal agenda," and as a bonus, make Americans become disillusioned with government. When that happened, voters would be less likely to turn out for elections. That would favor Republicans, as it has historically, and as it did, ultimately putting the "Grand Old Party" back in control of both the House and the Senate.

But they needed to do more to win the Presidency

The RNC made it their mission to reach out to "low information, low propensity" registered Republicans, who made up some 35% of the Republican base and generally didn't vote. They made a concerted, heavily-funded get out the vote (GOTV) effort through direct, personal contact -- these folks didn't do social media. In my 2016 post I identified some of the organizations they reached out to on this. Click on these hyperlinks and be amazed.

UNIFIED PATRIOTS

REDSTATE

THE PRECINCTS PROJECT

US PRECINCT PROJECT

Uniting the Right Wing Base

The Republican strategy also involved uniting the right-wing base, which consisted of a plethora of single-issue factions (like the Democrats, actually), including:

National Rifle Association (NRA), Gun Owners of America (GOA), other gun groups, and militia organizations.

The Tea Party, which had split into the Tea Party Patriots, Tea Party Nation, Tea Party Express, and unaffiliated voters who call themselves Tea Partiers.

The 9-12 Project (an Ayn Rand sort of group with god thrown in for good measure). Their principles included, "Government cannot force me to be charitable."

Smart Girl Politics Action (SGPA) This organization began with the mission to "engage, educate, and empower conservative women to get involved in the political process." The RNC didn't think they'd have to do much to entice them into the fold, but they began to worry when Trump became the nominee. They needn't have worried. Trump won 53% of the vote of white women -- not Republican white women -- all white women voters. Digest that.

SarahPAC.com was Sarah Palin's personal money making venture designed to capitalize on what she termed "her historic endorsement of Donald Trump." Palin's fund-raising message to prospective donors was that she supported "anti-establishment" candidates, but the RNC wasn't particular. If they could latch on to Sarah's "momma grizzlies," they'd use their money and voter network and nominate who they damn well felt like nominating. Of course things didn't quite turn out the way they hoped.

Grassfire a very social media centric group, which the RNC used it to network with the organizations outlined above.

Evangelical Christians. In the 2014 midterm elections, white evangelicals or born-again Christians made up 26 percent of the electorate and 78% of them voted for Republican candidates. During the primaries, a plurality of self-identified white evangelicals voted for Trump (40%), while the majority split their votes between Ted Cruz (34%), Marco Rubio (11%), and John Kasich (10%). The RNC's challenge was to unify that voting block behind their presumptive nominee. It wasn't a problem once Trump promised to rollback the last half century of progress made on women's reproductive rights ("Two Corinthians" notwithstanding). Evangelicals continue to stand firmly with Trump, as I write about here.

The laying on of hands

AsaMom mission was, "to empower Moms and Moms at Heart in preserving our Constitution, country and children’s future." The RNC had to convince this voting block that Donald Trump was only kidding when he said it doesn't matter what the media said, "as long as you have a beautiful piece of ass with you." The Access Hollywood video surfaced later and the RNC thought, "Oh, shit," but once Trump explained that it was "only locker room talk" everything was okay.

Why the RNC got Donald Trump instead of JEB!

The problem the RNC had in leading up to the Republican 2016 Primaries and in then trying to unify the above groups, whose commonality was primarily angry disaffection, was that the RNC was the 'establishment' and it was peddling the same, tired establishment bullshit. In other words, they totally misjudged the give-a-shit basis for their audience's mood, which was poor-paying jobs, no jobs, shitty jobs, and Mexicans taking all the shitty jobs that they didn't want, but were unhappy to see said Mexicans making money at. But the elephant in the room was named 'Xenophobia' -- a fear that the white person's place atop the slag heap was in danger of toppling. So yeah, "Fuck you, RNC, we'll vote for an asshole, that'll teach you!" And voilà -- Donald Trump.

And then came Russia barreling down the Fulda Gap

Now this rather too-long piece is about my 2016 assessment of the Republican strategy for wining the election, not why Hillary Clinton lost -- there have been plenty of hand-wringing analyses of that. What I want to express is how embarrassed I am for missing what turned out to be a key ingredient in the Republican strategy, viz, Russia. I didn't see Russia coming. Did you?

Ultimately, our Intelligence agencies ferreted it out and not long after Trump's inauguration, their findings led to the Mueller investigation looking into whether the Trump Campaign and Trump himself had been colluding with Russia (remember, “Russia, if you’re listening, I hope you’re able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing"?).

Is it too far fetched to think that the RNC itself was colluding with Russia. After all, the RNC watered down language in the Republican Platform supporting U.S. assistance to the Ukraine in its efforts to resist Russian interference in their internal affairs. And according to reports, the RNC was also penetrated by Russian hackers, but their data were not released. More recently, Republican lawmakers faced scorn when they decided to celebrate July 4th in Moscow. Did they have favors to return?

Sen. Richard C. Shelby (R-Ala.) led the eight-member Republican delegation on a multi-day tour of Russia.

Donald Trump claims the Russia investigation is a "witch hunt." Well, a lot of witches have been rounded up. It will be interesting to see what the latest witch, Maria Butina, revealed about her contacts with the RNC and with her handler, Alexander Torshin when questioned by the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and by Robert Mueller.

Scott Walker between Walker stood between Maria Butina and Alexander Torshin

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We now know that Russia deployed active measures to influence the 2016 Election, and they did so to aid Donald Trump. There is growing evidence that members of the Trump Campaign colluded with Russia, with the latest revelation being that Paul Manafort shared campaign polling data with the Russians before the 2016 Election. Certainly this aided the Russians social media blitz. What we don't know for sure, and may never know, is how much Russia's interference impacted election results. Opinions?

Rep. Dan Newhouse Responds to My Letter Regarding Russia's Influence in the 2016 U.S. Election

May 31, 2017

Dear Dr. Badalamente,

Thank you for contacting my office about the investigation into Russia’s influence in the 2016 election cycle.  It is important to hear from constituents as I work in Congress representing the people of Washington’s 4th District.  I sincerely appreciate you reaching out and sharing your views on this important issue.

Recently, concerns were raised over President Trump’s firing of James Comey, the former director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). These concerns are centered on Director Comey and the FBI’s active investigation of potential ties between the Trump campaign and Russian officials’ interference in the presidential election.

You may be pleased to know that despite the firing of Director Comey, the FBI is continuing to investigate Russia’s potential role in last year’s elections and any potential ties between Trump campaign officials and Russia.  Additionally, you will be pleased to know, on May 17, 2017 the Department of Justice (DOJ) appointed former FBI director Robert Mueller as a special counsel charged with overseeing the federal investigation into Russian interference in the election.  Many individuals have asked for a special counsel to be appointed since this investigation began, and Director Mueller is highly respected and has served both Republican and Democratic Administrations.

Additionally, the Senate and House Intelligence Committees are also conducting investigations into this matter as well. I am encouraged by the effort to determine the facts in this matter and determine the extent of Russian interference, and whether there was collusion between the Trump campaign and Russian officials.  No one is above the law, and Congress, the FBI, and DOJ will act accordingly when the findings of the investigation are released.

I hope you will continue to be in contact as Congress debates the many issues of importance to the country. I also encourage you to connect with me on Facebook and Twitter and to sign up for my e-newsletter for the latest updates on my work to represent Central Washington’s views in our nation’s capital

Thank you again for taking the time to share your concerns with me—I am always glad to hear from constituents of the 4^th District. It is an honor and privilege to serve you in Congress.
Sincerely,

Dan Newhouse
Member of Congress

Demand an Independent Investigation

Washington Attorney General Bob Ferguson's email (see below) urging us to sign his petition calling for a special prosecutor was distributed before the news that President Trump revealed highly classified information to the Russian foreign minister and ambassador last week. According to current and former U.S. officials, Trump’s disclosures jeopardized a critical source of intelligence on the Islamic State. So we can add that to our motivation for signing the petition.

But we must do more than that. First thing tomorrow call your Senators and your representative and demand a special prosecutor, or independent commission to launch a nonpartisan investigation. The next FBI head likely would not be seen as fairly pursuing the probe because he/she will have been directly appointed by Trump -- the man being investigated. Plus, they'd have to deal with the U.S. AG Jeff Sessions, who said he'd recuse himself from dealing with the FBI investigation, then had his deputy recommend firing Director Comey. Of course, Donald Trump said subsequently that he'd have fired Comey anyway, because of the Russia investigation, which was a hoax. You can't make this stuff up!

Call/Tweet Marie Cantwell: 202-224-3441, @SenatorCantwell
Call Patty Murray: 202-224-2621, @PattyMurray
Call Dan Newhouse, 202-225-5816, @RepNewhouse
(I know he's grieving, but you can convey the message to his staff)

Bob Ferguson's email follows:

Donald Trump’s firing of FBI Director James Comey is deeply troubling. Comey’s dismissal came just days after the FBI Director requested more resources for his independent criminal investigation into whether President Trump’s campaign colluded with Russia to influence our presidential election.

America’s institutions must be above partisan obstruction, and we deserve answers: Sign my petition for an independent special prosecutor to investigate the extent of Russian meddling – and any collusion by the Trump campaign.

I am calling for an independent special prosecutor, armed with full powers and resources, to ensure Americans are provided the truth, and any guilty parties are held accountable.
Are you as deeply troubled as I am?

If so, add your name right now to join my call for an independent special prosecutor to investigate.

Bob

What Next?

Donald Trump's Presidency is just entering its second month and we can say unequivocally that things are as bad and worse than we could've imagined. Trump himself has:

• questioned the integrity of the 2016 election results, claiming without evidence that "millions of people voted illegally" (all for Hillary Clinton, of course), which is why he lost the popular vote,
• maligned the judiciary (not for the first time), because the court decided his Muslim Ban was unconstitutional (thank you, Bob Ferguson, WA AG),
• called the Press "an enemy of the American people,"
• reneged on his pledge to release his tax returns after an IRS audit,
• refused to abide by the Emoluments Clause of the U.S. Constitution, thus ensuring continued conflicts of interest with his far-flung business interests,
• blasted the Intelligence Community over their reports of Russian hacking of the DNC and interference in the 2016 election,
• impugned the integrity of the FBI after imploring them to "knock down" press reports on Trump team contacts with Russian officials during the 2016 campaign.

In the meantime, under cover of Mr. Trump's "unpresidented" attack on everything and everyone he disagrees with, Republicans are ramming through Mr. Trump's terrible Cabinet nominees, and pushing through and/or repealing legislation that will change a regulatory landscape shaped by progressive principles.

One of their first moves in laying the groundwork for how they planned to operate, was to emasculate the independent Congressional Ethics Committee. After a public outcry, in which even Mr. Trump weighed in, the House reversed that plan. Instead, they appointed our former WA-4 Representative, Richard "Doc" Hastings to head the committee. We all know how conscientious Doc is on that front.

"Hear no evil" Doc Hastings to head up Ethics

At the top of the GOP's ambitious agenda is wiping out healthcare coverage for millions of Americans. Republicans have fought the Affordable Care Act literally from its inception. It goes against their conservative principle of "Every [rich] man for himself." The problem is, while Republicans bitched and moaned about ACA, aka "Obamacare" for eight years, all they did in that time was pass more than 50 symbolic bills to repeal it, apparently in an effort to make their base feel they were doing something other than obstructing everything President Obama tried to do. Now they have to actually come up with a replacement, and hey, it isn't as easy as they thought when they ridiculed the 2700-pages of legislation that accompanied the bill. "Noboby knew that healthcare could be so complicated," Mr. Trump said Monday. Yeah, actually, they did. More than once.

A draft of the House Republicans' bill to repeal Obamacare would replace its subsidies with less generous tax credits, increase the amount insurers could charge older Americans and effectively eliminate Medicaid for low-income adults. These provisions could leave a significant share of the 20 million people who gained coverage under Obamacare without insurance. It's not all bad, however. Taxes on tanning beds would be repealed under the GOP plan, thus ensuring that Mr. Trump can continue his orangeness without undue expense.

Healthcare isn't the only thing the GOP is working to degrade in order to "Make America Great Again." Frankly, it's hard to keep up with everything Congress is doing, even for Congressional Democrats. Collegiality is not on the GOP agenda, let alone transparency, or compromise. You can try following Congress.gov, but you might be better served by following Whitehouse.Leaks.org, a fictitious site I just made up. But there are a lot of leaks.

Without doubt the government agency at greatest risk today is the Environmental Protection Agency -- an agency created by a Republican president, Richard Nixon. His creation of the EPA was not the reason he resigned in disgrace, but republicans, once serious about "conservation," have more and more come to hate the EPA. In an odd turn of events, republicans appreciation for Vladimir Putin has soared. It may be that republicans see environmentalists as today's communists, and they prefer fascism to communism, thus their support of Trump and by extension, Putin.

The environment is high on the list of GOP targets, and not just the "climate change hoax." Republicans employed the Congressional Review Act to scrap the Stream Protection Rule, designed to limit the dumping of mining waste in local waterways. The rule was put in place by the Department of the Interior in the final days of the Obama administration, tightening standards for contamination of water and restoration of streams damaged by mining operations. Joyful miners in Kentucky were sure to be grateful to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell for protecting their well-being.

With the installation of Scott Pruitt as Administrator of the EPA Americans can expect to see a severe degradation of the Agency's authority and capacity for enforcement of existing regulation, let alone new rulemaking.

As Walter Rosebaum has written in a recent edition of The Conversation,

"Environmental organizations can attempt to mobilize public support and pressure Congress to counteract Pruitt-led revisions of EPA’s organization and rule-making. In particular, increased activism at the state level can be a countervailing force to federal environmental retrenchment."

Activism at the local and state levels seems to be a formula for pressing Congress and, perhaps to a lesser degree, the Administration, on a board range of issues, from freedom of the press to freedom of choice. So, get on your hiking boots and get out there!

Statement by Senator Patty Murray on Michael Flynn Resignation

Today, U.S Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) released the following statement after Michael Flynn resigned from his position as National Security Advisor.

“Like so many Americans, I am deeply troubled by the events that led to the abrupt resignation of Michael Flynn, a person who was supposed to be putting the safety of American citizens and our allies first, and who for months had a direct line to the president and the power to influence some of the most critical decisions facing our country.

“While removing himself is a positive step, I have little reason to believe that Mr. Flynn’s resignation marks any sort of conclusion. In fact, this development only prompts many more questions. I join my colleagues on both sides of the aisle in calling for an immediate and independent investigation into Russian interference in our elections, and potential links between the Kremlin and the Trump campaign. President Trump has remained far too dismissive of Russia’s hostile behavior and Americans deserve to know why that is. We cannot afford a White House that accommodates Vladimir Putin and his meddling in foreign elections, aggression in Ukraine, and record of human rights abuses at home and abroad."