Checking on the Trump SWOT -- The Mueller Report

In what seems like eons ago (but was just last March) I published my crack at a Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis for Donald Trump heading into the 2020 election. There are some interesting developments since then, especially in the Threat category, that point to advantages for Democratic hopefuls. The threats to Trump identified in the SWOT are listed below. We'll start with the Mueller Report. The other threats will be addressed in future posts.

1. Mueller investigation shows collusion or obstruction
2. SDNY indicts Trump
3. Member of Trump family indicted (that idiot, Donald Jr!)
4. House passes bill to force Trump to release tax returns
5. Evidence arises showing Trump interfered in security clearance procedure
6. Enough Republicans in Congress turn against Trump to make impeachment a possibility
7. Russia does something stupid (e.g., invades Ukraine) and turns on Trump over sanctions
8. DPRK begins nuclear weapons testing
9. Market crash
10. Environmental disaster
11. Trump suffers serious health problem limiting ability to do rallies 
12. Democratic Party unites behind strong candidate with wide appeal

Mueller Investigation

The Mueller Report was released to the public on April 18, 2019. Despite the Attorney General, William Barr, covering for the President in the form of a misleading 4-page summary of the 448-page report, followed by an equally misleading press conference the day the report was released, an actual reading of the report presents a damning picture of the President and his campaign.

We all know by now that the Special Counsel did not clear the President on obstruction of justice, and we know why the Special Counsel did not charge him. I think people are less clear about what the Special Counsel found regarding "collusion."

The Special Counsel treated the general idea of collusion as “conspiracy,” a legal concept the Counsel defined as, “An agreement-tacit or express-between the Trump Campaign and the Russian government on election interference.” The Special Counsel’s report pointed out that, “this requires … two parties taking actions that were informed by or responsive to the other's actions or interests.” Proving without a doubt this sort of explicit coordination is difficult and while “the investigation identified numerous links between individuals with ties to the Russian government and individuals associated with the Trump Campaign, the evidence was not sufficient to support criminal charges.”

The investigation established that “several individuals affiliated with the Trump Campaign lied to the Office, and to Congress, about their interactions with Russian-affiliated individuals and related matters. Those lies materially impaired the investigation of Russian election interference.”

In addition, the Special Counsel’s report stated that:

• Some individuals invoked their Fifth Amendment right against compelled self-incrimination
• Even when individuals testified or agreed to be interviewed, they sometimes provided information that was false or incomplete
• Some individuals, including some associated with the Trump Campaign, deleted relevant communications or communicated during the relevant period using applications that feature encryption or that do not provide for long-term retention of data or communications records.

So, the Special Counsel’s bottom line on collusion was more nuanced than Mr. Barr would have us believe. In fact, the Special Counsel wrote, “Given these identified gaps, the Office cannot rule out the possibility that the unavailable information would shed additional light on (or cast in a new light) the events described in the report.” 

Special Counsel Robert Mueller's May 29th statement provides context for his report's conclusions. It is now up to the House and its Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, to decide on where to go with Mueller's findings.

“If we had had confidence that the president clearly did not commit a crime, we would have said so."

Impeachment is a possibility being weighed as much by political as by symbolic considerations -- symbolic because of what George Will calls the "supine behavior of most congressional Republicans." Will's op-ed in the Washington Post is an excellent argument against impeachment. Will's acerbic conclusion is that, "Impeachment can be an instrument of civic hygiene. However, most of today’s Senate Republicans, scampering around the president’s ankles, are implausible hygienists."

Tri-Cities Young Democrats Candidate Forum

The Tri-Cities Young Democrats hosted a forum for candidates vying for city council seats in Kennewick, Pasco, Richland, and West Richland. Click on the color-coded hyperlink to see a video of the forum.

Candidates participating in the forum included: Dori Luzzo Gilmour (Richland P-7), Willian 'Dan' White (West Richland P-1), David Milne Pasco P-5/5), Bob Hoffman (Pasco D-6), Rhoda Williams (Richland P-1), Jim Millbauer (Kennewick P-4), Michael Alvarez (Richland P-7), Ryan Lukson (Richland P-4), Kalen Finn (Richland P-1), Steve Lee (Kennewick P-2/2), Craig Maloney (Pasco P-6), Sandra Kent (Richland P-3), Rick Rios (Pasco D-3), Jess Monterey (Richland P-1), Shir Regev (Richland P-3), Eldon Eskeli (Richland P-7), Ginger Wireman (Richland P-4), Blanche Barajas (Pasco D-1), Mike Luzzo (Richland P-4), and Kate Moran (West Richland P-6).

Candidates made opening remarks and then participated in a lengthy question and answer session. Again, to view the forum, go to: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WUhdhDqMhXk&feature=youtu.be

One can read the statement of candidates who chose to make them on the Benton County On-Line Voters Pamphlet, and/or the Franklin County On-Line Voters Guide.

City Council positions are ostensibly non-partisan. Nevertheless, it isn't too difficult to see that the candidates' political positions tend to align with conservative or progressive values. For example, ccandidates not participating included Richland Mayor Bob Thompson (P-1), who's been in a bit of hot water over an unfortunate remark he made at the State of the Cities gathering at the end of May this year.

In my opinion, his remark illustrated a pro-growth bias at the expense of environmental and sustainability concerns, as well as a disdain for community members who voiced concerns about this. The Richland City Council under Thompson leadership has also been reluctant to take up the issue of inclusiveness -- an important value for progressives.

The primary for 2017 elections opens in just two weeks. Ballot drop boxes open Wednesday July 12th. Voting runs for 18 days.

Do your due diligence, determine for whom you'll cast your ballot, and VOTE! VOTE! VOTE! (please only vote once, but do it).