IS IT POSSIBLE FOR NEWHOUSE TO WIN RE-ELECTION IN 2024?

Dan Newhouse (L) versus Jerrold Sessler (R)

Introduction

The Washington State Republican Party (WAGOP) like the Benton County Republican Party and party faithful up and down the 4th Congressional District are out to get Dan Newhouse, ever since he had an attack of conscience and voted to impeach Donald Trump for Trump leading the seditious attack on the Capital, and American democracy. WAGOP and our Benton County Republicans have endorsed his opponent, Jerrod Sessler, a carpetbagger from Burien Washington, and a MAGA extremist, who ran unsuccessfully in 2021.

Sessler was the top vote-getter in the 2024 CD-4 Primary, and he and Newhouse, who came in second, will meet in the General Election in November. A lot of people are predicting that Newhouse will lose his seat to Sessler. Moderate Republicans and Democrats both, will be more than sorry to see this happen. Let's see how it can be prevented.

Background

Going into the 2024 General Election, Washington's Fourth Congressional District (CD-4) has 421,357 registered voters. Voters consistently vote for Republican candidates 65% of the time. Washington has a "top two" primary.

No democratic candidate made it through the primary, so two Republican Party candidates are running for the same office. One candidate, Jerrod Sessler, polled ~33% of the votes cast in the Primary, and the other, incumbent Dan Newhouse, polled ~23% of the votes cast in the Primary. A third Republican candidate, Tiffany Smiley, polled ~19% of the votes cast and thus didn't make it through the "top two" Primary.

Who is Smiley?

Smiley is an advocate for veterans, and a former triage nurse. In a previous campaign for Senate, Smiley said that she supports a law in her state guaranteeing the right to an abortion up to fetal viability. Smiley has said, “I’m pro-life, but I oppose a federal abortion ban.”

Smiley has not endorsed either candidate, Sessler, or Newhouse, in the race. Thus, there's a question about how votes for Smiley will be split in the General Election.

Analysis

A starting point for redistributing Smiley's votes is to assume that none of her votes go to Newhouse. Another possibility is that women who voted for Smiley because of her more moderate views on abortion, and because Sessler is "fiercely" anti-abortion, will switch their vote to Newhouse. Let's call that 20% of the Smiley vote. Finally, we can take an optimistic view and assume that together with women and more moderate Republicans, 35% of Smiley's votes go to Newhouse, leaving 65% to Sessler.

We have to account for the fact that there's a write-in candidate in the running. She's filed as preferring the Democratic Party. Her name won't appear on the ballot. But whatever write-in votes go to her will favor Sessler, since that'd otherwise go for the least onerous candidate, as they have in previous all-Republican elections, for example, 2014 and 2016 when Newhouse faced Clint Didier. 

 Let's start by assuming the turnout for the General election in this Presidential election year is typical, at ~80%. Then calculate the number of democratic voters that would have to vote for Newhouse to ensure his victory (data is drawn from the Washington State Secretary of State website).

1. Determine Total Voter Turnout:

There are ~422,000 registered voters, and 80% turnout is expected for the Presidential election year.

The total number of voters expected to participate in the General Election is:

Total voters = 0.8 × 422,000 = 337,600

2. Republican Voter Distribution:

The district consistently votes Republican 65% of the time, so 65% of the total expected voters will likely vote for one of the Republican candidates, Sessler or Newhouse, so:

• Republican votes = 0.65 × 337,600 = 219,440
• The remaining voters are typically Democratic
• Democratic voters = 337,600 − 219,440 = 118,160 

3. Primary Results and Vote Redistribution:

Newhouse received ~23% of the Primary votes, and Sessler received ~33%, and Smiley received ~19%.

In the General Election, the votes from Smiley will be redistributed in one of three ways:

1. 0% of Smiley's votes will go to Newhouse
2. 20% of Smiley votes will go to Newhouse
3. 35% of Smiley's votes will go to Newhouse

From Primary results, Smiley would receive ~19% of the votes, or  0.19 × 337,600 = 64,144

Then based on the above assumptions regarding vote redistribution:

1. Newhouse receives 0.00 x 64,144 = 00,000 [Sessler receives all 64,144 - 0 = 64,144]
2. Newhouse receives 0.20 x 64,144 = 12,829 [Sessler receives 64,144 - 12,829 = 51,315]
3. Newhouse receives 0.35 × 64,144 = 22,450 [Sessler receives 64,144 - 22,450 = 41,694]

4. General Election Vote Estimates:

Newhouse alone received ~23% of the votes in the Primary, which translates to the following General Election votes: 0.23 × 337,600 = 77,648

Adding the redistributed votes from Smiley for the three cases: Total votes for Newhouse, would be:

1. 77,648 + 00,000 = 77,648
2. 77,648 + 12,829 = 90,477
3. 77,648 + 22,450 = 100,098

Sessler received ~33% in the Primary, thus in the General = 0.33 × 337,600 = 111,408

Adding the redistributed votes from Smiley, Sessler's vote total would be:

1. 111,408 + 64,144 =175,552
2. 111,408 + 51,315 = 162,723
3. 111,408 + 41,694 = 153,102

5. How Many Democratic Voters Are Needed for Newhouse to win?

The vote gap between Newhouse and Sessler for each of the three scenarios is shown in the table below.

%	Newhouse	Sessler	Vote Gap
0	77,648	175,752	97,904
20	90,477	162,723	72,246
35	100,098	153,102	53,004

Since there are 118,160 Democratic voters in CD-4, the percentage of Democratic voters who need to vote for Newhouse to ensure victory ranges from:

1. 97,904 / 118,160 = .82 or 82%
2. 72,246 / 118,160 = .61 or 61%
3. 53,004 / 118,160 = .45 or 45%

In the last three CD-4 elections in which Democratic candidates ran, they received from 70,710 to 102,667 votes. That translates to 60% to 87% of the computed democratic voter population.

Conclusion

It is possible for Newhouse to win reelection, but only with strong democratic support and some redistributed votes from Smiley Primary voters.

A large vote for the write-in candidate will boost Jerrod Sessler's odds of unseating Dan Newhouse, thus aligning our district with the most extreme members of the House Freedom Caucus, that includes members like Jim Jordan, Matt Gaetz, Lauren Boebert, Paul Gosar, and Andy Biggs, and before she got tossed for an expletive-laced tirade against Boebert, Marjorie Taylor Green. Sessler would fit right in.